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美國經濟當前存在這三個問題

美國經濟當前存在這三個問題

Will Daniel 2023-07-12
今年5月,紐約聯儲的新“多元核心趨勢”通脹指標只有3.5%,遠低于核心PCE指數4.6%的水平。

美國經濟未來會出現什么問題?圖片來源:MICHAEL M. SANTIAGO—GETTY IMAGES

一年多以來,盡管有許多悲觀預測,但最近一系列樂觀的經濟數據讓華爾街的知名經濟學家們推遲甚至徹底放棄了對經濟衰退的預測。以美國銀行(Bank of America)的首席經濟學家邁克爾·加彭為例,這位巴克萊(Barclays)的前高管從去年7月開始任職于美國銀行,并大膽發布了經濟衰退預測,但過去一年,他已經不得不被迫數次修改他預測的時間。加彭在7月7日的客戶報告中承認,最近的數據“好得超出預期”。但他依舊無法改變內心的感覺。

過去幾周,美國第一季度的GDP增長率被上調至2%;政府數據顯示,美國經濟6月新增209,000個就業崗位,使失業率下降至3.6%;紐約聯儲銀行(New York Federal Reserve)的最新數據顯示,美聯儲(Federal Reserve)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾鐘愛的通脹指標核心個人消費支出(PCE)指數,可能高估了經濟中真實的消費物價上漲幅度。今年5月,紐約聯儲的新“多元核心趨勢”通脹指標只有3.5%,遠低于核心PCE指數4.6%的水平。

加彭在7月7日寫道,他上周在亞洲進行市場考察發現,最近的積極數據讓客戶“對美國經濟普遍感到樂觀”。但他們確實有許多難以回答的問題,其中最主要的問題是:“美國經濟可能出現什么問題?”

為了幫助總結美國經濟的悲觀情景,加彭用三個理由,證明他為什么仍然堅持自己的立場,并認為2024年上半年開始的“輕度衰退”是美國經濟合理的“基本情景”,盡管最近華爾街的一些同行表現出樂觀的態度。

1. 信用緊縮和貸款需求疲軟

首先也是最重要的是,加彭擔心信用緊縮。

他表示,最近的高級貸款專員意見調查(Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys)顯示,大多數類別的貸款增長速度“大幅下降”,而且全國貸款專員預測這種趨勢會持續到年底。今年3月,以硅谷銀行(ilicon Valley Bank)和簽名銀行(Signature Bank)為代表的區域性銀行暴雷之后,銀行大幅收緊了貸款標準,希望避免步已經倒閉的同行的后塵。

加彭警告道:“我們還看到,繼續加息可能加大區域銀行的壓力,加劇信用緊縮。這最終會影響投資、就業和消費?!?/p>

2. 學生貸款延期還款期滿的影響

加彭擔心的第二個問題是美國最高法院(Supreme Court)最近駁回了美國總統喬·拜登政府的學生貸款債務減免計劃。白宮在去年8月宣布,對符合特定收入規定的借款人,減免最高10,000美元聯邦學生貸款,對獲得佩爾助學金(Pell Grants)的借款人可以減免最高20,000美元,但美國最高法院于上周判決,拜登政府未經美國國會批準,無權免除學生的貸款債務?,F在,借款人將在夏末或初秋恢復還款。

加彭認為,恢復學生貸款還款將“對其他類別債務產生連帶影響”,包括信用卡和汽車貸款,未來會提高債務拖欠率,但最重要的是,它會減少消費者支出,而消費者支出占美國70%的GDP。

他寫道:“邊際消費傾向更高的低收入消費者,最有可能背負還款的壓力,因此我們認為這可能是經濟增長的中度不利因素?!?/p>

不止加彭擔心恢復學生貸款還款對消費者的影響。穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)的分析師在6月的《美國消費者現狀》(State of the U.S. Consumer)報告里警告:“聯邦學生貸款延期還款期滿,將進一步加大年輕借款人的壓力。隨著學生債務的利息負擔加劇,家庭支付能力將受到約束,削弱家庭的財務狀況和消費者信用?!?/p>

3. 勞動力市場危機

雖然自去年3月以來,面對美聯儲的激進加息,勞動力市場表現出了持續的韌性,但加彭擔心美國上班族可能要面臨最糟糕的情況。

這位經濟學家在7月7日表示,過去幾個季度,“盡管需求不溫不火,公司卻一直在儲備人才”,因為它們擔心會再次遭遇新冠疫情期間普遍存在的招聘問題,因此就業崗位增長“速度超過了”GDP增長速度。就業增加和GDP增速下降,再加上最近的就業崗位增長以低工資服務業為主,這些因素導致上班族的生產率下降。美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)6月1日報告稱,第一季度非農勞動力生產率下降了2.1%。

加彭解釋道:“這可能并非一種持續狀況。要么GDP增長速度加快,證明已經進行的招聘的合理性,要么工資增長大幅減速,甚至工資水平下降。后者是我們的基本情景,與此同時,經濟將變得更加疲軟?!?/p>

加彭預測,從2024年開始,美國GDP將連續兩個季度下降,但下降幅度只有1.5%,而且他認為明年的失業率將達到4.7%的最高水平。

他總結道:“雖然……經濟整體上依舊維持增長趨勢,但我們認為依舊有足夠的理由擔心,從2024年上半年開始美國經濟陷入輕度衰退,將是基本情景?!?/p>

但加彭在整體上可能過于悲觀。他的華爾街同行認為,最近的就業報告健康但比預期的更加低迷,這證明經濟衰退可能并非不可避免。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的首席美國經濟學家艾倫·曾特納在7月7日的報告中表示,“今天的報告依舊表明美國經濟有機會實現軟著陸”,而穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)的首席經濟學家馬克·贊迪發推文稱,該報告“接近完美”。悲觀者是時候“冬眠”了嗎?(財富中文網)

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

一年多以來,盡管有許多悲觀預測,但最近一系列樂觀的經濟數據讓華爾街的知名經濟學家們推遲甚至徹底放棄了對經濟衰退的預測。以美國銀行(Bank of America)的首席經濟學家邁克爾·加彭為例,這位巴克萊(Barclays)的前高管從去年7月開始任職于美國銀行,并大膽發布了經濟衰退預測,但過去一年,他已經不得不被迫數次修改他預測的時間。加彭在7月7日的客戶報告中承認,最近的數據“好得超出預期”。但他依舊無法改變內心的感覺。

過去幾周,美國第一季度的GDP增長率被上調至2%;政府數據顯示,美國經濟6月新增209,000個就業崗位,使失業率下降至3.6%;紐約聯儲銀行(New York Federal Reserve)的最新數據顯示,美聯儲(Federal Reserve)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾鐘愛的通脹指標核心個人消費支出(PCE)指數,可能高估了經濟中真實的消費物價上漲幅度。今年5月,紐約聯儲的新“多元核心趨勢”通脹指標只有3.5%,遠低于核心PCE指數4.6%的水平。

加彭在7月7日寫道,他上周在亞洲進行市場考察發現,最近的積極數據讓客戶“對美國經濟普遍感到樂觀”。但他們確實有許多難以回答的問題,其中最主要的問題是:“美國經濟可能出現什么問題?”

為了幫助總結美國經濟的悲觀情景,加彭用三個理由,證明他為什么仍然堅持自己的立場,并認為2024年上半年開始的“輕度衰退”是美國經濟合理的“基本情景”,盡管最近華爾街的一些同行表現出樂觀的態度。

1. 信用緊縮和貸款需求疲軟

首先也是最重要的是,加彭擔心信用緊縮。

他表示,最近的高級貸款專員意見調查(Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys)顯示,大多數類別的貸款增長速度“大幅下降”,而且全國貸款專員預測這種趨勢會持續到年底。今年3月,以硅谷銀行(ilicon Valley Bank)和簽名銀行(Signature Bank)為代表的區域性銀行暴雷之后,銀行大幅收緊了貸款標準,希望避免步已經倒閉的同行的后塵。

加彭警告道:“我們還看到,繼續加息可能加大區域銀行的壓力,加劇信用緊縮。這最終會影響投資、就業和消費?!?/p>

2. 學生貸款延期還款期滿的影響

加彭擔心的第二個問題是美國最高法院(Supreme Court)最近駁回了美國總統喬·拜登政府的學生貸款債務減免計劃。白宮在去年8月宣布,對符合特定收入規定的借款人,減免最高10,000美元聯邦學生貸款,對獲得佩爾助學金(Pell Grants)的借款人可以減免最高20,000美元,但美國最高法院于上周判決,拜登政府未經美國國會批準,無權免除學生的貸款債務?,F在,借款人將在夏末或初秋恢復還款。

加彭認為,恢復學生貸款還款將“對其他類別債務產生連帶影響”,包括信用卡和汽車貸款,未來會提高債務拖欠率,但最重要的是,它會減少消費者支出,而消費者支出占美國70%的GDP。

他寫道:“邊際消費傾向更高的低收入消費者,最有可能背負還款的壓力,因此我們認為這可能是經濟增長的中度不利因素?!?/p>

不止加彭擔心恢復學生貸款還款對消費者的影響。穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)的分析師在6月的《美國消費者現狀》(State of the U.S. Consumer)報告里警告:“聯邦學生貸款延期還款期滿,將進一步加大年輕借款人的壓力。隨著學生債務的利息負擔加劇,家庭支付能力將受到約束,削弱家庭的財務狀況和消費者信用?!?/p>

3. 勞動力市場危機

雖然自去年3月以來,面對美聯儲的激進加息,勞動力市場表現出了持續的韌性,但加彭擔心美國上班族可能要面臨最糟糕的情況。

這位經濟學家在7月7日表示,過去幾個季度,“盡管需求不溫不火,公司卻一直在儲備人才”,因為它們擔心會再次遭遇新冠疫情期間普遍存在的招聘問題,因此就業崗位增長“速度超過了”GDP增長速度。就業增加和GDP增速下降,再加上最近的就業崗位增長以低工資服務業為主,這些因素導致上班族的生產率下降。美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)6月1日報告稱,第一季度非農勞動力生產率下降了2.1%。

加彭解釋道:“這可能并非一種持續狀況。要么GDP增長速度加快,證明已經進行的招聘的合理性,要么工資增長大幅減速,甚至工資水平下降。后者是我們的基本情景,與此同時,經濟將變得更加疲軟?!?/p>

加彭預測,從2024年開始,美國GDP將連續兩個季度下降,但下降幅度只有1.5%,而且他認為明年的失業率將達到4.7%的最高水平。

他總結道:“雖然……經濟整體上依舊維持增長趨勢,但我們認為依舊有足夠的理由擔心,從2024年上半年開始美國經濟陷入輕度衰退,將是基本情景?!?/p>

但加彭在整體上可能過于悲觀。他的華爾街同行認為,最近的就業報告健康但比預期的更加低迷,這證明經濟衰退可能并非不可避免。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的首席美國經濟學家艾倫·曾特納在7月7日的報告中表示,“今天的報告依舊表明美國經濟有機會實現軟著陸”,而穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)的首席經濟學家馬克·贊迪發推文稱,該報告“接近完美”。悲觀者是時候“冬眠”了嗎?(財富中文網)

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

After more than a year of doomsday forecasts, a string of recent bullish economic data has led many of Wall Street’s top minds to push back or even retract their recession calls. Take Bank of America chief economist Michael Gapen, for example. The former Barclays exec began his tenure at Bank of America with a bold recession call last July, but has been forced to revise the timing of his forecast on multiple occasions over the past year. And in a July 7 note to clients, Gapen admitted that recent data has also “surprised to the upside.” Still, he can’t shake that feeling he had.

Over the past few weeks, first quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised up to 2%; government data showed the U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in June, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.6%; and new data from the New York Federal Reserve revealed that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s favorite inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, may be overstating the true level of consumer price increases in the economy. The New York Fed’s new “multivariate core trend” inflation measure came in at just 3.5% in May, well below the 4.6% figure from the core PCE index.

Gapen wrote on July 7 that he took a marketing visit to Asia last week and found the recent positive data had clients feeling “generally optimistic about the U.S. economy.” But they did have a few nagging questions, the chief of which was: “What could go wrong?”

To help outline the bear case, Gapen gave three reasons that he’s sticking to his guns and still believes a “mild recession” starting in the first half of 2024 is the logical “base case” for the U.S. economy despite recent optimism from some of his peers on Wall Street.

1. Tight credit and weak demand for loans

First and foremost, Gapen is worried about a credit crunch.

He noted that recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys (SLOOS) have shown that loan growth has “slowed significantly in most categories,” and loan officers nationwide expect that to continue through year-end. Banks have tightened their lending standards significantly in the wake of regional bank issues in March—headlined by the blowup of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank—in hopes of avoiding the same trap as their now fallen peers.

“We also see a risk that additional rate hikes will lead to another bout of regional bank stress, which would cause further credit tightening,” Gapen warned. “This should eventually weigh on investment, employment and spending.”

2. Student loan repayment aftershock

Gapen’s second major concern is the Supreme Court’s recent rejection of the Biden administration’s student loan debt relief plan. The White House announced a plan last August that would have canceled up to $10,000 in federal student loans for borrowers meeting certain income requirements, and $20,000 for borrowers who received Pell Grants, but the Supreme Court ruled last week that the Biden administration doesn’t have the ability to forgive student loan debt without the approval of Congress. Now, repayments are set to resume in late summer or early fall.

Gapen argued that the resumption of student debt repayments will have “knock-on effects to other categories of debt” including credit cards and auto loans, increasing delinquency rates over time, but most important, it will also reduce consumer spending, which makes up 70% of U.S. GDP.

“Given that lower-income consumers with higher marginal propensities to spend are most likely to be burdened by repayment, we think this could be a moderate headwind to growth,” he wrote.

Gapen isn’t alone in worrying about the effects that the resumption of student loan payments will have on consumers. “The expiration of the federal student loan repayment moratorium will further compound pressures on younger borrowers. As the interest burden on student debt rises, household payment capacity will be constrained, weakening household finances and consumer credits,” Moody’s Analytics analysts warned in their June State of the U.S. Consumer report.

3. The end of the line for the labor market

While the labor market has shown continued resilience in the face of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March of last year, Gapen fears the worst is yet to come for American workers.

The economist argued on July 7 that job gains have “outpaced” GDP growth over the past few quarters because businesses “have hoarded workers despite tepid demand” fearing they’ll face a repeat of the hiring issues so prevalent throughout the pandemic. This mix of increasing employment with fading GDP growth, along with recent job growth being dominated by the lower-wage service sector, has led to a drop in worker productivity. Nonfarm business sector labor productivity fell 2.1% in the first quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June 1.

“That is probably not a sustainable dynamic,” Gapen explained. “Either GDP will accelerate to justify the hiring that has already happened, or payrolls will slow significantly and potentially decline. The latter is our base case, and it would be accompanied by a much weaker economy.”

Gapen expects U.S. GDP to decline for two consecutive quarters at the start of 2024, but by just 1.5%, and argues the unemployment rate will rise to a peak of 4.7% next year.

“Although…the broader economy is growing around trend, we still think there are enough pockets of concern that a mild recession, starting in 1H 2024, should be the base case,” he concluded.

But Gapen might just be too bearish in general. His peers on Wall Street are pointing to the latest jobs report—which was healthy but cooler than expected—as evidence that a recession may not be inevitable after all. Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Ellen Zentner said in a July 7 note that “the report today continues to point to a soft landing for the economy,” and Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi tweeted that it was “close to perfect.” Is it time for the bears to go into hibernation?

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